The confidence with which many political forecasters are predicting that Hillary Clinton will beat Donald Trump in the presidential election deserves a bit of contrarian analysis.
Yes, it would seem that Clinton is the favorite — today. But the country is six months away from casting its ballots, and if Trump proved anything during the Republican primaries, it’s that he knows how to get attention and how to attract votes.
Former Sen. Trent Lott, once one of the most powerful Republicans in Mississippi but now an in-demand Washington lobbyist, pointed out Trump’s talents last week in comments to The Associated Press.
Lott said that people from both parties who think Clinton is guaranteed to beat Trump are underestimating his appeal. He predicted Trump will cause “a massive turnout of a lot of people that don’t usually vote, and there are going to be a lot of independents and Democrats that are going to vote for him.”
This makes sense, even though the conventional wisdom says Trump’s loud-mouthed strategy during the primaries, in which he offended virtually every voting bloc except white men, will haunt him in the general election.
Trump deservedly has received high negative ratings from voters in poll after poll. He’s rude, obnoxious, bullying, two-faced, self-centered and blissfully ignorant of America’s leadership role in the world. It’s hard to think of someone less qualified to be president of the United States. Maybe Bernie Sanders — who like Trump inspired passionate support among Democrats, but not enough to surpass Clinton.
As Lott noted, Trump survived all this negativity — frankly, he seemed to thrive on it — while racking up plenty of victories in Republican primaries. After a couple of early setbacks, he clearly got stronger in April and May.
This trend is best shown by his convincing victory last week in Indiana, a conservative state where the vote for Trump was so overwhelming that it forced the remaining challengers, Ted Cruz and John Kasich, out of the race for the nomination.
As for Clinton, she is vulnerable. She is about as far from an immaculate candidate as you can get. She deserves the criticism she’s received for her four years as secretary of state — the private e-mail server and the lack of rescue effort for the diplomats in Benghazi. Sanders has forced her too far to the left; how will this play with moderate independents in November?
Clinton, like Trump, has received high negative ratings in many polls. She has struggled to put away Sanders, who was an independent socialist instead of a Democrat until last year, when joining a party suited his purposes.
A strong case can be made that Clinton is the candidate likely to cause the least damage as president. But that’s far from an inspirational reason to vote for her.
If Clinton is going to win, she’s going to have to beat Trump at his own game. This foretells a most undesirable presidential campaign.
