“There are lies, damn lies and statistics.” That famous line is, perhaps falsely, attributed to Mark Twain, but it underscores the obvious reality that numbers can often distort reality.
Nevertheless, being somewhat wonkish, I have long tracked overall state expenditures and published these numbers periodically.
One reason for this: I simply have never come across a historical view of state expenditures anywhere. So I just decided to compile one myself.
The numbers are easily obtained through the Mississippi Legislative Budget Office website (although there are multiple document versions, often with slightly different numbers.) Even so, I believe my spreadsheet is accurate.
One goal of the spreadsheet is to look at our state budget from a historical perspective. One thing jumps out: State government has grown significantly over the years, even when adjusted for inflation and population growth. This growth has occurred under both Republican and Democrat control of the governorship and state legislature.
But as significant as our state government general fund has grown, its growth is only about half the growth of special funds and federal grants.
Purely adjusted for inflation and population, our state government general fund should be $5.55 billion instead of the $7.04 billion that it is. By this I mean if you take our 1990 budget, adjust for inflation and population growth, our 2025 budget should be $5.55 billion. But it’s not. It’s $7.04 billion. That means, in real terms, our state government general fund has grown 26 percent over 35 years. That seems significant.
However, when you compare the general fund growth to the state GDP growth, it seems more stable. Since 1990, state GDP is 3.24 times the 1990 GDP while the general fund is 3.69 times the 1990 general fund. In that case, our state general fund has only grown 13.8 percent more than our state GDP growth.
Still, anyway you cut it, government seems to grow faster than the economy at large — and much faster than inflation and population growth.
This is not entirely illogical. As our state grows more prosperous, we can afford better government. The general fund is not just bureaucrats sitting around doing nothing. The general fund is good roads, decent courts, competent teachers and police, secure prisons and many things fundamental to a functioning state.
If you look at the rows under “Increase From Preceding Decade,” it does appear that Republicans are better budget tamers and Democrats. In the two decades after 1990, the Democrats grew the general fund 81 percent and 42 percent while the Republicans held growth to 17 percent in the decade ending in 2020.
But looks like the general fund growth is creeping back up. From 2020 to 2025, the general fund grew 22 percent. If that continues, then the decade ending in 2030 will be on par with the decade ending in 2010.
I’m not advocating cutting or expanding state government, just showing the numbers.
